Probably you might have gone through all those predictions for year 2009, be it Technology predictions, Geo-Political, Climate, Regulations, Stock/Job/Housing Markets, and the like.
Do they make any sense to you?
I could make a top 10 list and call it “Great Technology Predictions for 2009” and dust the list at the end of 2009 and see if any of the things mentioned are actually true. One or two hits, I can self-proclaim myself as a world’s great predictioner and publish a new list for the next year.
We may be expecting some radical changes at the turn of every year. It is like expecting some one to wipe-off all your debt. New Year sure does bring improved optimism and outlook. And one can expect good things in store for them. But things does not change at the flip of a coin.
Probably the best way to deal with things is stop predicting and start executing them. If you want to reduce your debt, plan and execute. If you want to lose weight, start work outs. You will reach the goal in phased manner. These things are simple and have fewer parameters to tackle them.
If you are predicting Microsoft to acquire Yahoo!, then it is much more complicated. There are lot of parameters/factors that control the deal to happen such as: Microsoft, Yahoo, Stock Holders, Competitors, Regulators, etc. It is a complicated collective action which I think is out of bounds for prediction.
There is nothing like Technology failure prediction. It may be just that it does not suit the current conditions. It sure can raise when the conditions are optimal and can piggy back on some other innovation to create a collective solution.
Predicting is a lot more guess work than tracking patterns and figuring out next curves.
What do you think?